Vasco DA Gama 1-3 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Vasco DA Gama welcome Juventude to Estádio São Januário. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Vasco DA Gama at Estádio São Januário this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Juventude have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasco DA Gama, 2 for Juventude and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Juventude winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Juventude trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Juventude 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Juventude 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 2.01 xG and Juventude 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.123 / defence 1.302 | Juventude attack 0.863 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 0.955. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Vasco DA Gama's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Vasco DA Gama games / 70 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 21% | Juventude 20%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Juventude 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Vasco DA Gama (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Juventude lead the H2H ledger, but Vasco DA Gama carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Juventude 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 21% | Juventude 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasco DA Gama 2.01 / Juventude 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.123 / def 1.302 | Juventude attack 0.863 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.413 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Juventude xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 3 Juventude.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 59% chance of winning, Juventude a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Juventude in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Juventude (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.70
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
3.08
1.07
Juventude xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
37.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.07 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 70 games, going 26W 14D 30L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.06 PPG from 70 outings (19W 17D 34L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.31 PPG, Juventude on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 17W 9D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.66 points per game from 35 outings (5W 8D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.06 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Juventude in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 26W 14D 30L in their last 70 games (1.31 PPG), while Juventude have gone 19W 17D 34L in their last 70 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Juventude away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.71 PPG; Juventude away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Juventude have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Juventude?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Juventude have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Vasco DA Gama 1-3 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 51%, Juventude 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vasco DA Gama) and 57% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Juventude in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 57% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 57% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Juventude tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Juventude in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Vasco DA Gama 1-3 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 2.01 xG and Juventude 1.07 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Juventude outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.12 / defence 1.30 against Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 21% | Juventude 20%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Juventude 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.31 PPG, Juventude 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.