Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasco DA Gama 1.70 PPG, Fluminense 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 1 for Fluminense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fluminense trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 41% | Fluminense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.33 xG and Fluminense 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.165 / defence 1.180 | Fluminense attack 0.726 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.063. Data: 58 Vasco DA Gama games / 58 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 46% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 26%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Fluminense 3.85. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 46% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.33 / Fluminense 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.165 / def 1.180 | Fluminense attack 0.726 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Fluminense xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 46% chance of winning, Fluminense a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 1.17x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.57
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Fluminense xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.91 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Vasco DA Gama have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 19W 12D 27L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 21W 13D 24L from 58 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.19 PPG, Fluminense on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (14W 5D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 5W 5D 19L from 29 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.16 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 19W 12D 27L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Fluminense away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.62 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Fluminense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 48%, Fluminense 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vasco DA Gama) and 38% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 28% of games; Fluminense in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 31% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 38% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Fluminense 2-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.33 xG and Fluminense 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Fluminense attack 0.73 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 46% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 26%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 41%, Fluminense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.19 PPG, Fluminense 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.