Sport Recife 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sport Recife vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sport Recife and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 July 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Sport Recife (all games): 1W 3D 4L across 8 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's home record at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie A appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Sport Recife are significantly better at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palmeiras arrive in superior form — a 1.25 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Sport Recife — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 25% versus Palmeiras 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 25% | Palmeiras 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.77 xG and Palmeiras 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.670 / defence 0.940 | Palmeiras attack 1.004 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.082. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Sport Recife games / 8 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 25% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 39%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Palmeiras 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 0% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 25% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Sport Recife 0.77 / Palmeiras 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.670 / def 0.940 | Palmeiras attack 1.004 / def 1.204 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Palmeiras xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sport Recife vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Sport Recife vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Palmeiras part of?
Sport Recife vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 25% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sport Recife and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Palmeiras in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.67) and Palmeiras's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.00x) against Sport Recife's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
25%
3.98
36%
2.79
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.79
1.02
Palmeiras xG
3.98
25%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 17.1 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.02 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 2L across 8 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Sport Recife are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sport Recife are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.88 scored and 1.25 conceded. Palmeiras's attacking output running into Sport Recife's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Palmeiras in 75%.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.33 PPG; Palmeiras away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
0
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Palmeiras?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Palmeiras have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Palmeiras 3-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sport Recife) and 67% (Palmeiras) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Sport Recife) and 100% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Palmeiras in 33%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 67% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sport Recife's recent games and 100% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.77 xG and Palmeiras 1.02 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Palmeiras attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 25% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 39%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 25%, Palmeiras 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.