Sport Recife 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sport Recife vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sport Recife welcome Botafogo to Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 July 2025 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sport Recife — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sport Recife have posted 0W 2D 3L at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Botafogo's 1.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Sport Recife's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 42% | Botafogo 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 42% | Botafogo 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.53 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.661 / defence 1.336 | Botafogo attack 0.938 / defence 0.633. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.875. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.633 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Sport Recife games / 51 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 18% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 49%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 5.56 | Draw 3.03 | Botafogo 2.04. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 40% | Botafogo 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 18% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 28% | xG Sport Recife 0.53 / Botafogo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.661 / def 1.336 | Botafogo attack 0.938 / def 0.633 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.875 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.53
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Botafogo xG
28%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Botafogo kick off?
Sport Recife vs Botafogo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Botafogo?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Sport Recife vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Botafogo part of?
Sport Recife vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 18% chance of winning, Botafogo a 49% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Sport Recife and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Botafogo in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.53. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.0%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
18%
5.69
33%
3.00
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.53
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.63
1.10
Botafogo xG
5.69
18%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.61
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
59%
1.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.03
29%
3.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.53 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.10 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife come into this having played 12 games, going 0W 3D 9L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sport Recife's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.42 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.33 scored and 0.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Botafogo in 17%.
Defensively: Botafogo in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 0W 3D 9L in their last 12 games (0.25 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.40 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Botafogo in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Botafogo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
0
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Botafogo?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Botafogo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 18 November 2025, when Botafogo 3-2 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Botafogo tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 40% BTTS, Botafogo 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Sport Recife and 0% for Botafogo.
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 60%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 60% of games; Botafogo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 0% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sport Recife's recent games and 0% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Botafogo tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.53 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.66 / defence 1.34 against Botafogo attack 0.94 / defence 0.63, drawn from 12/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 18% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 49%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 42%, Botafogo 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.