Sao Paulo 1-3 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sao Paulo host Vasco DA Gama at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 June 2025 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sao Paulo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Do MorumBIS this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at Estadio Do MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sao Paulo at 1.20 PPG versus Vasco DA Gama's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 2, Vasco DA Gama 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Sao Paulo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 51% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 51% | Vasco DA Gama 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.834 / defence 1.050 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.911 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 0.911. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Sao Paulo games / 49 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 23%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Vasco DA Gama 4.35. Sao Paulo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Sao Paulo 70% | Vasco DA Gama 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jun 2025, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sao Paulo 1.33 / Vasco DA Gama 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.834 / def 1.050 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.911 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.271 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Vasco DA Gama xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 13 June 2025 at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Sao Paulo 1 - 3 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 46% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (4 meetings): Sao Paulo 2W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sao Paulo's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.25
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.20
0.87
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.87 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 76 games, going 31W 19D 26L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.25 PPG from 76 outings (26W 17D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 25W 6D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.82 points per game from 38 outings (7W 10D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.11 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 31W 19D 26L in their last 76 games (1.47 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 26W 17D 33L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Sao Paulo's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 2.13 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2024, when Vasco DA Gama won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
1
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 47%, Vasco DA Gama 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sao Paulo) and 42% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 53% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 42% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Sao Paulo 1-3 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.87 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 23%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Vasco DA Gama 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.