Sao Paulo 2-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Sao Paulo welcome Sport Recife to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sao Paulo have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo's home record at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sport Recife have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sao Paulo) versus 1.00 (Sport Recife). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sao Paulo, 0 for Sport Recife and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Sao Paulo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sao Paulo in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sao Paulo 41% | Sport Recife 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 24% | Sport Recife 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.86 xG and Sport Recife 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.673 / defence 1.090 | Sport Recife attack 0.655 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.918. Sao Paulo's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Sao Paulo games / 34 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 38% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 26%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Sport Recife 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.52 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 40% | Sport Recife 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 38% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Sao Paulo 0.86 / Sport Recife 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.673 / def 1.090 | Sport Recife attack 0.655 / def 1.316 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Sport Recife xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife?
Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife part of?
Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 38% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Sao Paulo and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Sport Recife in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sao Paulo's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
38%
2.65
37%
2.72
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
1.52
0.66
Sport Recife xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.56
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 14.3 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.66 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sao Paulo's recent record stands at 9W 15D 10L from 34 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Sport Recife, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 17L across 34 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.24 PPG, Sport Recife on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sao Paulo have managed 5W 9D 3L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sport Recife's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.62 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 26%.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sport Recife in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Sport Recife
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 9W 15D 10L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Sport Recife away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.41 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sao Paulo and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 2, Sport Recife have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Sport Recife 2-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Sport Recife?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 41%, Sport Recife 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sao Paulo) and 41% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 41% of games; Sport Recife in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 35% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 41% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Sport Recife 2-0 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.86 xG and Sport Recife 0.66 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sao Paulo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against Sport Recife attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 38% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 26%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 24%, Sport Recife 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sport Recife's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.24 PPG, Sport Recife 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.