Santos 0-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 45%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santos vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Santos and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Santos's home record at Estádio Urbano Caldeira: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fortaleza EC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Fortaleza EC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Santos 1W, Fortaleza EC 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 40% versus Fortaleza EC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 37% | Fortaleza EC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.40 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.012 / defence 1.039 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.012 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Data: 75 Santos games / 75 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 45% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 28%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Fortaleza EC 3.57. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Santos 50% | Fortaleza EC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 45% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Santos 1.40 / Fortaleza EC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.012 / def 1.039 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.012 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Santos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fortaleza EC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Santos vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Fortaleza EC?
Santos 0 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Santos vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Santos vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 45% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Santos and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 2 | Fortaleza EC 0W.
What form are Santos and Fortaleza EC in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Santos's attack rating (1.01) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.01x) against Santos's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.74
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Santos xG
Total xG
2.46
1.05
Fortaleza EC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Santos and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Santos and 1.05 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Santos have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 24W 25D 26L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 31W 17D 27L from 75 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Santos against 1.47 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.68 PPG from 37 outings (17W 11D 9L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 13W 5D 19L from 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santos are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.17 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fortaleza EC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 24W 25D 26L in their last 75 games (1.29 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 31W 17D 27L in their last 75 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Santos's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.68 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Santos or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Santos
3
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Santos 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 38%, Fortaleza EC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Santos) and 51% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Santos's recent matches and 54% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Santos's recent games and 51% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Santos 0-2 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.40 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Santos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 45% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 37%, Fortaleza EC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.29 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.