Santos 2-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Flamengo at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Santos welcome Flamengo to Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Thursday 8 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santos — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio Urbano Caldeira — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Santos) versus 2.30 (Flamengo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Flamengo, who boast 6 victories compared to 3 for Santos.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Flamengo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Flamengo have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Santos in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 58% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 56% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.06 xG and Flamengo 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.936 / defence 1.088 | Flamengo attack 1.348 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.169. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Santos games / 66 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 21% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 50%. Fair-value odds: Santos 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.00. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Santos 50% | Flamengo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 21% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Santos 1.06 / Flamengo 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.936 / def 1.088 | Flamengo attack 1.348 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Flamengo xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Flamengo kick off?
Santos vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:30 on Thursday 8 October 2026 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Flamengo?
Santos 2 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Santos vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Flamengo part of?
Santos vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 21% chance of winning, Flamengo a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Santos and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
Record (9 meetings): Santos 3W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 6W.
What form are Santos and Flamengo in?
Santos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santos's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
21%
4.76
29%
3.50
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Santos xG
Total xG
2.77
1.71
Flamengo xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
4%
26.42
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Santos and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Santos and 1.71 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Santos have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 19D 24L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 41W 16D 9L from 66 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Santos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.58 PPG from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 17W 8D 8L from 33 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Santos are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 2.02 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 41W 16D 9L in their last 66 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.58 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Santos or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Flamengo in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 8 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Santos
1
Draws
6
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Flamengo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2026, when Santos 2-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 52%, Flamengo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Santos) and 58% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Flamengo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Santos's recent matches and 58% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Santos's recent games and 58% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Flamengo tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santos and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos and Flamengo finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.06 xG and Flamengo 1.71 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 21% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 50%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 56%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.