Santos 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Cuiaba at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 7 November 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Santos) versus 1.20 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Santos have won 1, Cuiaba 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 0–3 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Santos trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 51% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 51% | Cuiaba 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.20 xG and Cuiaba 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.142 / defence 1.302 | Cuiaba attack 0.897 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.092. Cuiaba's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Santos games / 69 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 35% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 38%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Cuiaba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Santos 80% | Cuiaba 20%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 35% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Santos 1.20 / Cuiaba 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.142 / def 1.302 | Cuiaba attack 0.897 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cuiaba xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Cuiaba kick off?
Santos vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 7 November 2023 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Cuiaba?
Santos 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Santos vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Cuiaba part of?
Santos vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 35% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Santos and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Cuiaba?
Record (5 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 2W.
What form are Santos and Cuiaba in?
Santos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.14x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
35%
2.89
27%
3.65
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Santos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.27
Cuiaba xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Santos and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Santos and 1.27 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Santos have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 22W 18D 29L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 21W 18D 30L from 69 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.22 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L).
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 11W 4D 19L from 34 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.90 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 22W 18D 29L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 21W 18D 30L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Cuiaba away?
Santos's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.53 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when Santos won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Cuiaba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2023, when Santos 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 59%, Cuiaba 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Santos) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Santos's recent matches and 35% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Santos's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos and Cuiaba finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.20 xG and Cuiaba 1.27 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.14 / defence 1.30 against Cuiaba attack 0.90 / defence 0.77, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 35% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 38%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 51%, Cuiaba 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.22 PPG, Cuiaba 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.