Santos 0-3 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Coritiba at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Santos — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Santos at Neo Química Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena.
Head to Head
Santos hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Coritiba, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Santos winning.
The historical record gives Santos a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.76 xG and Coritiba 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.010 / defence 0.940 | Coritiba attack 0.975 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.088. Data: 53 Santos games / 15 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 55% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 21%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Coritiba 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Santos (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 55% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Santos 1.76 / Coritiba 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.010 / def 0.940 | Coritiba attack 0.975 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Santos (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Coritiba xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Coritiba kick off?
Santos vs Coritiba kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Santos 0 - 3 Coritiba.
Where is Santos vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Santos vs Coritiba part of?
Santos vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 55% chance of winning, Coritiba a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santos and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
Record (4 meetings): Santos 3W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Santos and Coritiba in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Santos home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santos's attack rating (1.01) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.23
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Santos xG
Total xG
2.76
1.00
Coritiba xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
27.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Santos and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Santos and 1.00 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Santos
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Coritiba?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Coritiba run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Santos 0-3 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.76 xG and Coritiba 1.00 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Santos fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Coritiba outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Coritiba attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 55% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 21%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.