Santos 3-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Ceara at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.09 xG and Ceara 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Ceara attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.089. Data: 1 Santos games / 1 Ceara games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Santos 36% | Draw 30% | Ceara 35%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 36% | Draw 30% | Ceara 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Santos 1.09 / Ceara 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Ceara attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Santos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ceara xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Ceara kick off?
Santos vs Ceara kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Ceara?
Santos 3 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Santos vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Ceara part of?
Santos vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 36% chance of winning, Ceara a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Santos and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santos and Ceara in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.39
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Santos xG
Total xG
2.15
1.06
Ceara xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Santos and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Santos and 1.06 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Ceara runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2025, when Ceara won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Ceara have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Ceara 3-0 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Santos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ceara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Ceara 3-1 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.09 xG and Ceara 1.06 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Ceara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Santos 36% | Draw 30% | Ceara 35%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.