Remo 2-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Remo and Mirassol meet at Estádio Banpará Baenão in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.18 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Mirassol attack 0.996 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.029. Data: 1 Remo games / 39 Mirassol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Remo 36% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 36%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Mirassol 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Banpará Baenão • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Feb 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 36% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Remo 1.18 / Mirassol 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Mirassol attack 0.996 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mirassol xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Mirassol kick off?
Remo vs Mirassol kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Mirassol?
Remo 2 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Remo vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What competition is Remo vs Mirassol part of?
Remo vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 36% chance of winning, Mirassol a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Remo and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Remo and Mirassol in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Mirassol away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.86) and Mirassol's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (1.00x) against Remo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.58
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Remo xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
Mirassol xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Remo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Remo and 1.18 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since February 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Mirassol?
From 2 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Remo and Mirassol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo and Mirassol finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Banpará Baenão, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.18 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Remo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Mirassol attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Remo 36% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 36%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.