Remo vs Chapecoense-sc – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Remo at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Remo vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Evandro Almeida plays host to Remo versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Current Form

Remo's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Remo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Remo have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Evandro Almeida — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chapecoense-sc (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chapecoense-sc's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Remo's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chapecoense-sc's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Remo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chapecoense-sc in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Remo 1W, Chapecoense-sc 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Remo winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Remo half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Remo 62% and Chapecoense-sc 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 54% | Chapecoense-sc 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.83 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.996 / defence 1.245 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.751 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Remo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Remo games / 24 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Remo 52% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 21%. Fair-value odds: Remo 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Chapecoense-sc 4.76. Remo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Remo as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Remo 60% | Chapecoense-sc 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights