RB Bragantino 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 July 2025, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Flamengo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 1.70 PPG, Flamengo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for RB Bragantino, 3 for Flamengo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 60% versus Flamengo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 48% | Flamengo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 0.99 xG and Flamengo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.974 / defence 1.190 | Flamengo attack 1.075 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 0.888. Data: 53 RB Bragantino games / 52 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 39%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Flamengo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Flamengo 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jul 2025, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG RB Bragantino 0.99 / Flamengo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.974 / def 1.190 | Flamengo attack 1.075 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.258 / away 0.888 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Flamengo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 24 July 2025 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
RB Bragantino 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 32% chance of winning, Flamengo a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both RB Bragantino and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 2 | Flamengo 3W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 0.97x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.36
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.13
1.14
Flamengo xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.14 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 18W 16D 18L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 29W 13D 10L across 52 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RB Bragantino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 10W 9D 6L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 12W 6D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.69 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 29W 13D 10L in their last 52 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.56 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 60%, Flamengo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RB Bragantino) and 48% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of RB Bragantino's games and 56% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 48% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Flamengo tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out RB Bragantino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 0.99 xG and Flamengo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Flamengo attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 39%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 48%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.