RB Bragantino 1-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cruzeiro travel to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Bragantino — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 0.60 PPG, Cruzeiro 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for RB Bragantino, 2 for Cruzeiro and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Cruzeiro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 51% versus Cruzeiro 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 42% | Cruzeiro 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.20 xG and Cruzeiro 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.863 / defence 0.949 | Cruzeiro attack 0.793 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.052. Data: 73 RB Bragantino games / 73 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Cruzeiro 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Cruzeiro 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG RB Bragantino 1.20 / Cruzeiro 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.863 / def 0.949 | Cruzeiro attack 0.793 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cruzeiro xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro part of?
RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 44% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.86) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.09
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
1.99
0.79
Cruzeiro xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.79 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 25W 24D 24L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cruzeiro's form line: 24W 23D 26L from 73 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.36 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (18W 11D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 10W 10D 16L from 36 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.03 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 25W 24D 24L in their last 73 games (1.36 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 24W 23D 26L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Cruzeiro away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.81 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.11 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cruzeiro have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Cruzeiro won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
4
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Cruzeiro 2-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 50%, Cruzeiro 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (RB Bragantino) and 39% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 42%; Cruzeiro in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 25% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 39% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 36, as RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.20 xG and Cruzeiro 0.79 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Cruzeiro attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 42%, Cruzeiro 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.36 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.