RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Bragantino (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RB Bragantino face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Bragantino host Coritiba at in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coritiba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
RB Bragantino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: RB Bragantino have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Coritiba have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
The historical record gives RB Bragantino a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 47% versus Coritiba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 42% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.91 xG and Coritiba 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.157 / defence 0.953 | Coritiba attack 0.974 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.127. Data: 57 RB Bragantino games / 19 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 19%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Coritiba 5.26. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 50% | Coritiba 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG RB Bragantino 1.91 / Coritiba 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.157 / def 0.953 | Coritiba attack 0.974 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Coritiba xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Coritiba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 26 July 2026.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
RB Bragantino 0 - 0 Coritiba.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 57% chance of winning, Coritiba a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both RB Bragantino and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
Record (5 meetings): RB Bragantino 4W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Coritiba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.16) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.19
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.96
1.05
Coritiba xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
3%
34.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.05 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 9W 3D 7L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.58 PPG, Coritiba on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.32 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Coritiba in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Coritiba away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.78 PPG; Coritiba away: 1.22 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Coritiba in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Coritiba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 56%, Coritiba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RB Bragantino) and 56% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coritiba in 33%; Coritiba in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 33% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of RB Bragantino's matches and 56% of Coritiba's.
Do RB Bragantino and Coritiba tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Bragantino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino and Coritiba finished level at 0-0 at , Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.91 xG and Coritiba 1.05 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Coritiba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Coritiba attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 19%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 42%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coritiba's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.58 PPG, Coritiba 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.