Palmeiras 2-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Palmeiras welcome Gremio to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 July 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 outings — a 2.11 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.11 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 0W 2D 5L from 7 Serie A matches — 0.29 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Gremio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gremio away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.82 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.11 vs 0.29. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Gremio trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 71% versus Gremio 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 71% | Gremio 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.88 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.343 / defence 1.190 | Gremio attack 0.717 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 1.042. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Palmeiras games / 7 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 22% | Gremio 17%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Gremio 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 100% | Gremio 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jul 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 22% | Gremio 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Palmeiras 1.88 / Gremio 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.343 / def 1.190 | Gremio attack 0.717 / def 1.506 | league avg home 0.928 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gremio xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Gremio kick off?
Palmeiras vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 7 July 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Palmeiras vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Gremio part of?
Palmeiras vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 60% chance of winning, Gremio a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palmeiras and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Gremio (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.34x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.44
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.76
0.89
Gremio xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
38.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.89 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Palmeiras, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 5L across 7 games — 0.29 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gremio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gremio heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Gremio in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Early Season
Gremio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Gremio have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Gremio away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.33 PPG; Gremio away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Gremio runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Gremio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Palmeiras at 100%, Gremio at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Palmeiras) and 33% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Gremio in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Palmeiras's games and 33% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Palmeiras's recent games and 33% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Gremio tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gremio in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Gremio 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.88 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gremio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.34 / defence 1.19 against Gremio attack 0.72 / defence 1.51, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 60% | Draw 22% | Gremio 17%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 71%, Gremio 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.29. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.