Mirassol 0-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mirassol's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Mirassol's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mirassol, 0 for Botafogo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mirassol — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Botafogo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 13% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 63% versus Botafogo 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 50% | Botafogo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.282 / defence 0.982 | Botafogo attack 1.110 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 0.973. Mirassol carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Mirassol games / 68 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 44% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 29%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Botafogo 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 44% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Mirassol 1.39 / Botafogo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.282 / def 0.982 | Botafogo attack 1.110 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.427 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Botafogo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Botafogo kick off?
Mirassol vs Botafogo kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Mirassol 0 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Mirassol vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Botafogo part of?
Mirassol vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 44% chance of winning, Botafogo a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mirassol and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Botafogo in?
Mirassol (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.28x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.11x) against Mirassol's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.72
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.45
1.06
Botafogo xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.06 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 15W 10D 5L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 13W 8D 9L from 30 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Mirassol against 1.57 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (10W 5D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 6L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.37 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Botafogo in 30%.
Defensively: Botafogo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Botafogo away?
Mirassol's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.33 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Botafogo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
2
Draws
1
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Botafogo?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Botafogo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2026, when Botafogo 3-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 73%, Botafogo 13% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Mirassol) and 13% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 47%; Botafogo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Mirassol's recent matches and 13% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Mirassol's recent games and 13% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Botafogo tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mirassol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Botafogo finished level at 0-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mirassol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Botafogo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Botafogo attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 44% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 29%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 50%, Botafogo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Botafogo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.83 PPG, Botafogo 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.