Mirassol vs Atletico-MG – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 43%, yet in-form Atletico-MG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mirassol vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mirassol at José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mirassol are significantly better at José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Atletico-MG (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Atletico-MG are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Atletico-MG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 61% versus Atletico-MG 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 48% | Atletico-MG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.49 xG and Atletico-MG 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.068 / defence 1.070 | Atletico-MG attack 0.967 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.130. Data: 69 Mirassol games / 69 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 28%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico-MG 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico-MG (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Atletico-MG 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Mirassol 1.49 / Atletico-MG 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.068 / def 1.070 | Atletico-MG attack 0.967 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Atletico-MG xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 18 November 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia.
Where is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 43% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico-MG 2W.
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Atletico-MG (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.07x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.97x) against Mirassol's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.44
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.66
1.17
Atletico-MG xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.17 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol's recent record stands at 27W 22D 20L from 69 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 23L across 69 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Mirassol against 1.42 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 19W 11D 4L from 34 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 7W 7D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico-MG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.23 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 27W 22D 20L in their last 69 games (1.49 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 26W 20D 23L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Atletico-MG away?
Mirassol's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.00 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Atletico-MG 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 35% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Mirassol's recent matches and 32% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 35% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.