Juventude 0-3 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 43%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fortaleza EC are 0.60 PPG clear of Juventude in recent Serie A fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Juventude register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Fortaleza EC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Juventude, 2 for Fortaleza EC and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Fortaleza EC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 71% and Fortaleza EC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 48% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.74 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.112 / defence 1.419 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.054 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.013. Data: 31 Juventude games / 69 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 43% | Draw 24% | Fortaleza EC 34%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Fortaleza EC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 80% | Fortaleza EC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 43% | Draw 24% | Fortaleza EC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Juventude 1.74 / Fortaleza EC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.112 / def 1.419 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.054 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Juventude (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Fortaleza EC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Juventude vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Juventude 0 - 3 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Juventude vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Juventude vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 43% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Juventude and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fortaleza EC?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 3 | Fortaleza EC 2W.
What form are Juventude and Fortaleza EC in?
Juventude (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventude's attack rating (1.11) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.05x) against Juventude's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.24
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Juventude xG
Total xG
3.25
1.52
Fortaleza EC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Juventude and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Juventude and 1.52 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 8W 10D 13L from 31 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 6L across 31 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 16W 9D 6L in their last 31 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Juventude's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.73 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortaleza EC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 5-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Juventude
3
Draws
5
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Fortaleza EC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Juventude 1-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Juventude, 67% for Fortaleza EC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juventude) and 53% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Juventude's games and 67% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juventude's recent games and 53% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Juventude 0-3 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.74 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.11 / defence 1.42 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 43% | Draw 24% | Fortaleza EC 34%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 48%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.