Juventude 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 June 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.75 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.682 / defence 1.471 | Flamengo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.960 / away 1.043. Juventude's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Juventude games / 4 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 22% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 50%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.00. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jun 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 22% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Juventude 0.75 / Flamengo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.682 / def 1.471 | Flamengo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.960 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Flamengo xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Flamengo kick off?
Juventude vs Flamengo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 June 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Juventude 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Juventude vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Flamengo part of?
Juventude vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 22% chance of winning, Flamengo a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juventude and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.68x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
22%
4.64
29%
3.47
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.06
1.30
Flamengo xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
6%
17.10
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 16.7 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Juventude and 1.30 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Flamengo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Flamengo 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.75 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.68 / defence 1.47 against Flamengo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 22% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 50%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.