Juventude 0-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Juventude at 41%, yet in-form Bahia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bahia make the trip to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 00:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Juventude have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.

Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bahia's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bahia are 0.70 PPG clear of Juventude in recent Serie A fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Juventude, 1 for Bahia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 57% versus Bahia 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 39% | Bahia 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.10 xG and Bahia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.899 / defence 1.103 | Bahia attack 0.716 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 0.940 / away 0.998. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Juventude games / 28 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 35% | Bahia 24%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Bahia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bahia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 60% | Bahia 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights