Internacional 1-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 56%, yet in-form Santos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Internacional vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Internacional host Santos at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santos stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Santos away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Santos's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Internacional's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Internacional have won 0, Santos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Internacional in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Santos in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 49% versus Santos 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 40% | Santos 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.54 xG and Santos 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.241 / defence 1.247 | Santos attack 0.667 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 0.912. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Internacional games / 35 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 56% | Draw 26% | Santos 18%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Santos 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santos (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 70% | Santos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 56% | Draw 26% | Santos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Internacional 1.54 / Santos 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.241 / def 1.247 | Santos attack 0.667 / def 1.271 | league avg home 0.979 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Internacional (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Santos xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Santos kick off?
Internacional vs Santos kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Santos?
Internacional 1 - 1 Santos.
Where is Internacional vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Santos part of?
Internacional vs Santos is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 56% chance of winning, Santos a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Internacional and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Santos?
Record (1 meetings): Internacional 0W | Draws 1 | Santos 0W.
What form are Internacional and Santos in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Santos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Internacional's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.85
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.30
0.76
Santos xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
25.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Internacional and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Internacional and 0.76 for Santos, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Internacional's recent record stands at 12W 11D 12L from 35 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Santos, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 12L across 35 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.34 PPG, Santos on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Internacional have managed 8W 5D 4L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santos's away record stands at 2W 7D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Internacional are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santos in 29%.
Defensively: Santos in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Santos in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Santos have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Santos away?
Internacional's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.71 PPG; Santos away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Internacional or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Santos in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Internacional and Santos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Internacional won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Internacional's record when hosting Santos specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Internacional
5
Draws
0
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Santos have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Santos 1-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Santos?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santos see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 59%, Santos 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Internacional) and 41% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Santos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Internacional's recent matches and 41% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Internacional's recent games and 41% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Santos tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Santos in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Internacional and Santos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 36, as Internacional and Santos drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.54 xG and Santos 0.76 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.24 / defence 1.25 against Santos attack 0.67 / defence 1.27, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 56% | Draw 26% | Santos 18%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 40%, Santos 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.34 PPG, Santos 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.