Internacional 3-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Internacional at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Internacional, 2.40 for Palmeiras — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Internacional 0W, Palmeiras 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 48% versus Palmeiras 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 41% | Palmeiras 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.28 xG and Palmeiras 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.281 / defence 0.824 | Palmeiras attack 1.321 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Internacional carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Internacional games / 75 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 41% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 32%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 30% | Palmeiras 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 41% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Internacional 1.28 / Palmeiras 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.281 / def 0.824 | Palmeiras attack 1.321 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Internacional (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 3 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 41% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Internacional 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.28x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.32x) against Internacional's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.61
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Palmeiras xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Internacional and 1.09 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 31W 25D 19L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 43W 18D 14L from 75 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Internacional against 1.96 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.92 PPG from 37 outings (20W 11D 6L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 19W 11D 7L from 37 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.65 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 31W 25D 19L in their last 75 games (1.57 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 18D 14L in their last 75 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Palmeiras away?
Internacional's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.92 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Internacional or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 54%, Palmeiras 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Internacional) and 46% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Internacional's recent matches and 49% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Internacional's recent games and 46% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Internacional run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Palmeiras 3-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.28 xG and Palmeiras 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Internacional beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.28 / defence 0.82 against Palmeiras attack 1.32 / defence 0.74, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 41% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 32%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 41%, Palmeiras 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.57 PPG, Palmeiras 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.