Internacional 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palmeiras at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Palmeiras are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Internacional 2W, Palmeiras 3W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Internacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 51% versus Palmeiras 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 40% | Palmeiras 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.848 / defence 1.059 | Palmeiras attack 1.068 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.048. Data: 53 Internacional games / 58 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 31% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 60% | Palmeiras 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 31% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Internacional 1.00 / Palmeiras 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.848 / def 1.059 | Palmeiras attack 1.068 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Palmeiras xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 31% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Record (6 meetings): Internacional 2W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.85x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.07x) against Internacional's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 53/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.44
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.19
1.19
Palmeiras xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Internacional and 1.19 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 20W 15D 18L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 27W 12D 14L from 53 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Internacional against 1.75 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 9W 8D 8L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.43 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Palmeiras away?
Internacional's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.60 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Internacional or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 56%, Palmeiras 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Internacional) and 44% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Palmeiras in 36%; Internacional have failed to score in 28% of games; Palmeiras in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Internacional's recent matches and 40% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Internacional's recent games and 44% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Internacional and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional and Palmeiras finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Palmeiras attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 31% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 40%, Palmeiras 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.42 PPG, Palmeiras 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.