Internacional 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 22:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Internacional have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Flamengo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Flamengo have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Internacional's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Internacional's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Internacional's games and 70% of Flamengo's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Internacional edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Internacional 0–0 Flamengo — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 54% versus Flamengo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.58 xG and Flamengo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.098 / defence 0.898 | Flamengo attack 1.312 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.011. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.312, which lifts their away xG to 1.19. Data: built from Internacional's last 68 games and Flamengo's last 68.
Result probabilities: Internacional 46% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 29%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.16 | Draw 3.99 | Flamengo 3.48. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Internacional's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Internacional 70% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 46% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Internacional 1.58 / Flamengo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.098 / def 0.898 | Flamengo attack 1.312 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Internacional (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Flamengo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Internacional vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Internacional vs Flamengo kick off?
Internacional vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Flamengo?
Internacional 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Internacional vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Flamengo part of?
Internacional vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 46% chance of winning, Flamengo a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Internacional and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Internacional vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.10x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.31x) against Internacional's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Internacional's last 68 games and Flamengo's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.99
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.77
1.19
Flamengo xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Internacional vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Internacional and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Internacional and 1.19 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Internacional come into this having played 68 games, going 29W 20D 19L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.76 PPG from 68 outings (35W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Internacional against 1.76 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Internacional's home form reads 17W 9D 7L across their last 33 home games, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 33 away games (15W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Internacional are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Internacional (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Internacional
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Internacional vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Internacional and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 29W 20D 19L in their last 68 games (1.57 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 35W 15D 18L in their last 68 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Flamengo away?
Internacional's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.82 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Internacional or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 29 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
6
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Internacional vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Internacional have won 2, Flamengo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 July 2026: Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Internacional see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Internacional) and 61% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Internacional vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Internacional and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Internacional's games and 64% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Internacional and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Internacional's matches and 61% of Flamengo's.
Do Internacional and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Internacional's recent matches and 73% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Internacional and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.58 xG and Flamengo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Flamengo attack 1.31 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 46% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 29%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.57 PPG, Flamengo 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.