Gremio 1-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena do Grêmio to take on Gremio. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio at Arena do Grêmio this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Gremio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gremio register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vasco DA Gama in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Gremio have won 3, Vasco DA Gama 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Vasco DA Gama 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 41% | Vasco DA Gama 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.80 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.115 / defence 1.002 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.773 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.178. Data: 63 Gremio games / 63 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 56% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 17%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Vasco DA Gama 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Vasco DA Gama 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 56% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Gremio 1.80 / Vasco DA Gama 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.115 / def 1.002 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.773 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Gremio (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Vasco DA Gama xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Gremio 1 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 56% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gremio and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (7 meetings): Gremio 3W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 3W.
What form are Gremio and Vasco DA Gama in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gremio's attack at 1.11x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.77
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.71
0.91
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
35.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Gremio and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Gremio and 0.91 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 17D 26L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.11 PPG from 63 outings (19W 13D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.22 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 16W 8D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.71 points per game from 31 outings (5W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.30 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 20W 17D 26L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 19W 13D 31L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Gremio's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.81 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gremio's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
From 8 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Gremio 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 58%, Vasco DA Gama 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Gremio) and 58% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Gremio's recent matches and 52% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Gremio's recent games and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Gremio 1-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.80 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.91 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gremio fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 56% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 17%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 41%, Vasco DA Gama 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.22 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.