Gremio 3-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gremio face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Flamengo at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 22 September 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gremio at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Flamengo stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Flamengo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gremio at 1.70 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Gremio, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Jun 2024, ended Gremio 1–2 Flamengo — a Flamengo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 50% versus Flamengo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 53% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.26 xG and Flamengo 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.852 / defence 1.172 | Flamengo attack 1.265 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.007. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.265, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Gremio's last 62 games and Flamengo's last 63.
Result probabilities: Gremio 32% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 43%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.13 | Draw 3.94 | Flamengo 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gremio's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gremio 30% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 27 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 32% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Gremio 1.26 / Flamengo 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.852 / def 1.172 | Flamengo attack 1.265 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Flamengo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Gremio vs Flamengo kick off?
Gremio vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio 3 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Gremio vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Flamengo part of?
Gremio vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 27) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 32% chance of winning, Flamengo a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gremio and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gremio vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gremio's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gremio's last 62 games and Flamengo's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
32%
3.13
25%
3.94
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.75
1.49
Flamengo xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gremio and 1.49 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 29W 9D 24L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 31W 15D 16L from 62 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.55 PPG, Flamengo on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 31 home games (19W 3D 9L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 14W 7D 10L from their last 31 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.50 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
Gremio (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gremio
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Gremio and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 29W 9D 24L in their last 62 games (1.55 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 31W 15D 16L in their last 62 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Flamengo away?
Gremio's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.94 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 4 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won Flamengo 3-0 Gremio.
Gremio's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gremio
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gremio have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2026: Flamengo 3-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 39%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gremio) and 61% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gremio and Flamengo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Gremio's recent matches and 64% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gremio and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gremio's recent games and 61% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Gremio's recent matches and 71% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Flamengo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Flamengo 3-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.26 xG and Flamengo 1.49 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Flamengo attack 1.26 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 32% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 43%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 53%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.55 PPG, Flamengo 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.