Goias 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to face Goias in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.099 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 0.893. Data: 1 Goias games / 39 Palmeiras games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Goias 33% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 37%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 33% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Goias 1.05 / Palmeiras 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.099 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.344 / away 0.893 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palmeiras xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Palmeiras kick off?
Goias vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Palmeiras?
Goias 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Goias vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Palmeiras part of?
Goias vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 33% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Goias and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Goias and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Palmeiras away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.86x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.10x) against Goias's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.42
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Goias xG
Total xG
2.18
1.13
Palmeiras xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Goias and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Goias and 1.13 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 0-5 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Goias
1
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Palmeiras?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Palmeiras have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Palmeiras 1-0 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Goias and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 2, as Goias and Palmeiras drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 1.10 / defence 0.91, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Goias 33% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 37%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.