Goias 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to face Goias in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Goias have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Goias, 2.30 for Flamengo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Goias lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Flamengo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Goias — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Flamengo — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 56% versus Flamengo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 44% | Flamengo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.01 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.922 / defence 1.216 | Flamengo attack 1.137 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 0.905. Data: 25 Goias games / 63 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 30% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 42%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Goias 70% | Flamengo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 30% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Goias 1.01 / Flamengo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.922 / def 1.216 | Flamengo attack 1.137 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.287 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Flamengo xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Flamengo kick off?
Goias vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Flamengo?
Goias 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Goias vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Flamengo part of?
Goias vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 30% chance of winning, Flamengo a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Goias and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Goias and Flamengo in?
Goias (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.92x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.14x) against Goias's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
30%
3.35
28%
3.52
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Goias xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Flamengo xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Goias and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Goias and 1.25 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Goias come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 8D 8L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Goias against 1.76 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Goias's home form reads 5W 5D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Goias are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.60 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Flamengo away?
Goias's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.67 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Goias or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Goias have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Flamengo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Goias
2
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Flamengo?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2023, when Goias 0-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 75%, Flamengo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Goias) and 42% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Goias's games and 50% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Goias's recent games and 42% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Flamengo tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Goias and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 26, as Goias and Flamengo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.01 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against Flamengo attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 30% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 42%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 44%, Flamengo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.40 PPG, Flamengo 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.