Goias 2-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Goias vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Goias welcome Atletico Paranaense to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Goias have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this season: 2W 4D 1L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico Paranaense are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Goias in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 53% versus Atletico Paranaense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Goias 33% | Atletico Paranaense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 0.89 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.884 / defence 1.041 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.061 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 0.984. Atletico Paranaense's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Goias games / 53 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 29% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 39%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Paranaense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Goias 71% | Atletico Paranaense 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 29% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Goias 0.89 / Atletico Paranaense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.884 / def 1.041 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.061 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.302 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Atletico Paranaense xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Goias vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Goias 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Goias vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Goias vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 29% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Goias and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Goias and Atletico Paranaense in?
Goias (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.88x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Goias's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.09
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Goias xG
Total xG
1.97
1.09
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Goias and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Goias and 1.09 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Goias's recent record stands at 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 4L across 15 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Goias heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Goias have managed 2W 4D 1L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Goias are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.27 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Paranaense in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Atletico Paranaense's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.43 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Goias or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Goias have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Goias's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Goias
1
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Atletico Paranaense?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 1, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2023, when Goias 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 71%, Atletico Paranaense 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Goias and 29% for Atletico Paranaense.
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 57%; Atletico Paranaense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Goias's recent matches and 29% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Goias vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Goias's recent games and 29% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Goias defy the odds to beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 0.89 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.09 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Goias beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.06 / defence 0.77, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 29% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 39%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Goias win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 33%, Atletico Paranaense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Goias winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Goias (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.