Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Cuiaba at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fortaleza EC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cuiaba have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Fortaleza EC.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 0–5 with Cuiaba winning.
It is worth noting that Cuiaba have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Cuiaba 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 44% | Cuiaba 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 2.02 xG and Cuiaba 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.229 / defence 0.736 | Cuiaba attack 0.924 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.014. Cuiaba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Fortaleza EC games / 64 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 69% | Draw 20% | Cuiaba 11%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Cuiaba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Cuiaba lead the H2H ledger, but Fortaleza EC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 40% | Cuiaba 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 69% | Draw 20% | Cuiaba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG Fortaleza EC 2.02 / Cuiaba 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.229 / def 0.736 | Cuiaba attack 0.924 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Cuiaba xG
43%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 69% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Record (7 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 5W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.23) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
69%
1.46
20%
4.99
11%
8.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.71
0.69
Cuiaba xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
8.73
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
2%
66.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.69 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 30W 15D 19L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba's form line: 19W 17D 28L from 64 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 2.10 PPG from 31 outings (19W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 11W 6D 14L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.98 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 15D 19L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 19W 17D 28L in their last 64 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Cuiaba away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.10 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Cuiaba have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 45%, Cuiaba 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 39% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 36% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 39% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 2.02 xG and Cuiaba 0.69 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.23 / defence 0.74 against Cuiaba attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 69% | Draw 20% | Cuiaba 11%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 44%, Cuiaba 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.