Fluminense 1-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santos have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Fluminense. A 0.50 PPG lead over Santos (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fluminense 1W, Santos 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 43% versus Santos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 46% | Santos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.81 xG and Santos 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.073 / defence 0.785 | Santos attack 0.759 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 0.956. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Fluminense games / 54 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 66% | Draw 23% | Santos 10%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Santos 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | Santos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 66% | Draw 23% | Santos 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 37% | xG Fluminense 1.81 / Santos 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.073 / def 0.785 | Santos attack 0.759 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.312 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Santos xG
37%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Santos kick off?
Fluminense vs Santos kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Santos.
Where is Fluminense vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Santos part of?
Fluminense vs Santos is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 66% chance of winning, Santos a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Fluminense and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
Record (4 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 2 | Santos 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Santos in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Santos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.07) and Santos's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.76x) against Fluminense's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
66%
1.50
23%
4.28
10%
9.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.38
0.57
Santos xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
9.88
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
57%
1.77
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
2%
60.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.57 for Santos, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 11D 15L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (16W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Santos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 17W 5D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.15 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Santos in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Santos have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Santos away?
Fluminense's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.15 PPG; Santos away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Santos in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fluminense
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 5, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Santos?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 54%, Santos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fluminense) and 42% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Santos in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fluminense's recent matches and 38% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fluminense's recent games and 42% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Santos tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Santos in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Santos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Santos 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.81 xG and Santos 0.57 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.07 / defence 0.79 against Santos attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 66% | Draw 23% | Santos 10%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 46%, Santos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Santos's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.