Fluminense 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Internacional at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Internacional are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 2, Internacional 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Internacional in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 47% versus Internacional 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 45% | Internacional 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.87 xG and Internacional 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.836 / defence 1.140 | Internacional attack 0.879 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.076. Internacional's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Fluminense games / 49 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 27% | Draw 34% | Internacional 38%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Internacional 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 70% | Internacional 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 27% | Draw 34% | Internacional 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Fluminense 0.87 / Internacional 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.836 / def 1.140 | Internacional attack 0.879 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Internacional (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Internacional xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Internacional kick off?
Fluminense vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 5 July 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Fluminense 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Fluminense vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Internacional part of?
Fluminense vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 27% chance of winning, Internacional a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fluminense and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Internacional?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 1 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Internacional in?
Fluminense (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Internacional (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (0.84) and Internacional's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.90
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.95
1.08
Internacional xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.08 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fluminense come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 11D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.49 PPG from 49 outings (20W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.14 PPG, Internacional on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fluminense's home form reads 13W 7D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.14 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Internacional in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Internacional have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Internacional away?
Fluminense's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.84 PPG; Internacional away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Internacional in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Internacional 2-0 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 60%, Internacional 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Fluminense) and 36% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Internacional in 32%; Internacional in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Fluminense's recent matches and 44% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Fluminense's recent games and 36% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Internacional tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Internacional in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense and Internacional finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.87 xG and Internacional 1.08 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Internacional attack 0.88 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 27% | Draw 34% | Internacional 38%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 45%, Internacional 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.14 PPG, Internacional 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.