Fluminense 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Fluminense, 1.40 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fluminense register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bahia in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bahia — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 44% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 40% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.32 xG and Bahia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.839 / defence 1.037 | Bahia attack 1.123 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.046. Data: 57 Fluminense games / 58 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 39% | Draw 27% | Bahia 34%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 70% | Bahia 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 39% | Draw 27% | Bahia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Fluminense 1.32 / Bahia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.839 / def 1.037 | Bahia attack 1.123 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bahia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Bahia kick off?
Fluminense vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Fluminense vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Bahia part of?
Fluminense vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 39% chance of winning, Bahia a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fluminense and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 0 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.84x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.12x) against Fluminense's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.74
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.54
1.22
Bahia xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.22 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 20W 13D 24L from 57 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 23L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Fluminense against 1.33 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bahia's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.37 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Bahia have gone 21W 13D 23L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Bahia away?
Fluminense's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.89 PPG; Bahia away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Bahia?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 57%, Bahia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fluminense) and 54% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bahia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fluminense's games and 54% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fluminense's recent games and 54% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Bahia tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Bahia 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.32 xG and Bahia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Bahia attack 1.12 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 39% | Draw 27% | Bahia 34%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 40%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Bahia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.28 PPG, Bahia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.