Flamengo 1-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Flamengo against 1.80 for Vasco DA Gama. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Flamengo 1W, Vasco DA Gama 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 4–1 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 52% versus Vasco DA Gama 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Vasco DA Gama 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.41 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.858 / defence 0.911 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.792 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.051. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Flamengo games / 27 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 30% | Vasco DA Gama 19%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Vasco DA Gama 5.26. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Vasco DA Gama 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 30% | Vasco DA Gama 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Flamengo 1.41 / Vasco DA Gama 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.858 / def 0.911 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.792 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Vasco DA Gama xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 51% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (0.86) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.79x) against Flamengo's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.29
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.17
0.76
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
5%
22.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.76 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo's recent record stands at 13W 8D 6L from 27 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 13L across 27 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 6W 4D 2L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Flamengo's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.83 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-6 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Flamengo
4
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 33%, Vasco DA Gama 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Flamengo and 33% for Vasco DA Gama.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Flamengo's recent matches and 67% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Flamengo's recent games and 33% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.41 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.76 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 51% | Draw 30% | Vasco DA Gama 19%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Vasco DA Gama 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.