Flamengo 3-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 70% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Flamengo welcome RB Bragantino to Estádio do Maracanã. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio do Maracanã, Flamengo have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Flamengo) versus 1.40 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Flamengo, 2 for RB Bragantino and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 56% versus RB Bragantino 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | RB Bragantino 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.24 xG and RB Bragantino 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.385 / defence 0.845 | RB Bragantino attack 0.918 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.030. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 72 Flamengo games / 72 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 70% | Draw 18% | RB Bragantino 12%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | RB Bragantino 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Flamengo 50% | RB Bragantino 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 70% | Draw 18% | RB Bragantino 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 49% | xG Flamengo 2.24 / RB Bragantino 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.385 / def 0.845 | RB Bragantino attack 0.918 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
RB Bragantino xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo 3 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 70% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Flamengo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Record (8 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.39) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.54
12%
8.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Flamengo xG
Total xG
3.04
0.80
RB Bragantino xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
8.42
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
11%
9.38
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
1%
78.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.80 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 41W 18D 13L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 23W 20D 29L from 72 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RB Bragantino.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.19 PPG from 36 outings (23W 10D 3L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 7W 9D 20L from 36 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 62%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 41W 18D 13L in their last 72 games (1.96 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 23W 20D 29L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or RB Bragantino away?
Flamengo's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.19 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Flamengo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 53%, RB Bragantino 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Flamengo's games and 64% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 3-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.24 xG and RB Bragantino 0.80 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.39 / defence 0.84 against RB Bragantino attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 70% | Draw 18% | RB Bragantino 12%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, RB Bragantino 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.