Flamengo 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Flamengo take on Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.03 xG and Palmeiras 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.003. Data: 0 Flamengo games / 0 Palmeiras games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 32% | Draw 39% | Palmeiras 29%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Palmeiras 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 32% | Draw 39% | Palmeiras 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 1.03 / Palmeiras 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Palmeiras xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Flamengo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Palmeiras part of?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 32% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.85x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (0.85x) against Flamengo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
39%
2.57
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.01
0.98
Palmeiras xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.98 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
5
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Palmeiras have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.03 xG and Palmeiras 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 32% | Draw 39% | Palmeiras 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.