Flamengo 3-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Bahia travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 November 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bahia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bahia away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Flamengo's 30% rate and Bahia's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Flamengo, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 5–0 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bahia trading profile (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 48% versus Bahia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Bahia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.37 xG and Bahia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.190 / defence 1.000 | Bahia attack 0.702 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 0.935. Data: 29 Flamengo games / 30 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 54% | Draw 29% | Bahia 18%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Bahia 5.56. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Bahia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 54% | Draw 29% | Bahia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Flamengo 1.37 / Bahia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.190 / def 1.000 | Bahia attack 0.702 / def 1.199 | league avg home 0.959 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Bahia xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Bahia kick off?
Flamengo vs Bahia kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 11 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Flamengo 3 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Flamengo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Bahia part of?
Flamengo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 54% chance of winning, Bahia a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Flamengo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.19x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.50
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.03
0.66
Bahia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.66 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 16W 6D 7L from 29 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 12L across 29 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 10W 1D 4L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 16W 6D 7L in their last 29 games (1.86 PPG), while Bahia have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Bahia away?
Flamengo's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.07 PPG; Bahia away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 8, Bahia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Bahia?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Flamengo 33% BTTS, Bahia 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 33% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bahia in 33%; Flamengo have failed to score in 27% of games; Bahia in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Flamengo's recent matches and 33% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 33% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Bahia tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bahia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 3-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.37 xG and Bahia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.19 / defence 1.00 against Bahia attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 54% | Draw 29% | Bahia 18%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Bahia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.