Cuiaba 1-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cuiaba take on Sport Recife.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sport Recife make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Thursday 14 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Cuiaba (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sport Recife's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cuiaba lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 14% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sport Recife goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 48% versus Sport Recife 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Sport Recife 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.85 xG and Sport Recife 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.818 / defence 1.314 | Sport Recife attack 0.689 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.053. Data: 25 Cuiaba games / 25 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 34%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Sport Recife 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 60% | Sport Recife 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Cuiaba 0.85 / Sport Recife 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.818 / def 1.314 | Sport Recife attack 0.689 / def 1.131 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sport Recife xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Sport Recife kick off?
Cuiaba vs Sport Recife kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 14 October 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Sport Recife?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Cuiaba vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Sport Recife part of?
Cuiaba vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 29% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cuiaba and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Sport Recife in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sport Recife's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.69x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.49
37%
2.70
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.80
0.95
Sport Recife xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.95 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 13D 6L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.04 for Sport Recife. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cuiaba's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.56 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 24%.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 6W 13D 6L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Sport Recife away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.08 PPG; Sport Recife away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Sport Recife have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2021, when Cuiaba 1-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Sport Recife?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Sport Recife 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cuiaba) and 33% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife in 33%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 42% of games; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 33% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cuiaba's recent games and 33% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Sport Recife 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.85 xG and Sport Recife 0.95 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sport Recife landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against Sport Recife attack 0.69 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 29% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Sport Recife 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sport Recife's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Sport Recife 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.