Cuiaba 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Palmeiras meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 4W 3D 3L at Arena Pantanal — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palmeiras (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Cuiaba, 1.50 for Palmeiras — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cuiaba 1W, Palmeiras 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 47% versus Palmeiras 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 33% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.20 xG and Palmeiras 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.068 / defence 1.041 | Palmeiras attack 1.303 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.960. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Cuiaba games / 57 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 33% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 60% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 33% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Cuiaba 1.20 / Palmeiras 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.068 / def 1.041 | Palmeiras attack 1.303 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Palmeiras xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Palmeiras kick off?
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Cuiaba 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras part of?
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 33% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cuiaba and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Cuiaba and Palmeiras in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (1.07) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.30x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.53
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.50
1.30
Palmeiras xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.30 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 15D 24L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 32W 19D 6L from 57 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (9W 11D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 13W 12D 3L from 28 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.75 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 32W 19D 6L in their last 57 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.36 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Palmeiras have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 54%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cuiaba) and 46% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cuiaba's recent games and 46% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cuiaba 0-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.20 xG and Palmeiras 1.30 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 33% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 33%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.