Cuiaba 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cuiaba at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Juventude travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 2W 5D 3L at Arena Pantanal — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cuiaba at 0.80 PPG versus Juventude's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 2, Juventude 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cuiaba trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Juventude trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 41% versus Juventude 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 29% | Juventude 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.18 xG and Juventude 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.707 / defence 0.835 | Juventude attack 0.868 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.946. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Cuiaba games / 59 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 48% | Draw 31% | Juventude 21%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Juventude 4.76. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Juventude's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 40% | Juventude 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 48% | Draw 31% | Juventude 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Cuiaba 1.18 / Juventude 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.707 / def 0.835 | Juventude attack 0.868 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Juventude xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Juventude kick off?
Cuiaba vs Juventude kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Cuiaba vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Juventude part of?
Cuiaba vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 48% chance of winning, Juventude a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cuiaba and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 2W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Juventude in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.71x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.25
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.87
0.69
Juventude xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.69 for Juventude, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 22D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.05 PPG from 59 outings (14W 20D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.14 PPG, Juventude on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cuiaba's home form reads 9W 11D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (3W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.88 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Juventude in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 15W 22D 22L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Juventude have gone 14W 20D 25L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Juventude away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.31 PPG; Juventude away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Juventude in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cuiaba
3
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 3, Juventude have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Juventude 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Juventude?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 41%, Juventude 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Cuiaba and 41% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 34% of games; Juventude in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 62% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Cuiaba's recent games and 41% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Juventude tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Juventude in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out Juventude 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Juventude 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.18 xG and Juventude 0.69 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.71 / defence 0.83 against Juventude attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 48% | Draw 31% | Juventude 21%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 29%, Juventude 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juventude's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.14 PPG, Juventude 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.