Cuiaba 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cuiaba at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Fluminense travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 July 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 2W 3D 5L at Arena Pantanal — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Pantanal this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Cuiaba have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cuiaba's 20% rate and Fluminense's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Fluminense have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Cuiaba's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Cuiaba winning.
It is worth noting that Fluminense have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 37% versus Fluminense 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 41% | Fluminense 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.14 xG and Fluminense 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.839 / defence 1.003 | Fluminense attack 0.671 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.029. Data: 54 Cuiaba games / 54 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 22%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Fluminense 4.55. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Fluminense's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
Fluminense lead the H2H ledger, but Cuiaba carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 20% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Cuiaba 1.14 / Fluminense 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.839 / def 1.003 | Fluminense attack 0.671 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Fluminense xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Fluminense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 22 July 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Fluminense part of?
Cuiaba vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 46% chance of winning, Fluminense a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cuiaba and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 4W.
What form are Cuiaba and Fluminense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.84x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
46%
2.20
33%
3.04
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.83
0.69
Fluminense xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.69 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 14D 22L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 17W 13D 24L from 54 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.26 PPG, Fluminense on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 3W 5D 19L from 27 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Fluminense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.11 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fluminense in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Fluminense have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 37%, Fluminense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cuiaba) and 41% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 44% of games; Fluminense in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 33% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cuiaba's recent games and 41% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.14 xG and Fluminense 0.69 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against Fluminense attack 0.67 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 46% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 22%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 41%, Fluminense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.26 PPG, Fluminense 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.