Cuiaba 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cuiaba have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Pantanal — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ceara's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ceara are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cuiaba lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Ceara winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ceara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Ceara 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.77 xG and Ceara 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.779 / defence 0.916 | Ceara attack 1.141 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 0.990. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ceara's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Cuiaba games / 50 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 25% | Draw 35% | Ceara 40%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Ceara 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Ceara 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 25% | Draw 35% | Ceara 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Cuiaba 0.77 / Ceara 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.779 / def 0.916 | Ceara attack 1.141 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.275 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Ceara (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ceara xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Ceara kick off?
Cuiaba vs Ceara kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Cuiaba vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Ceara part of?
Cuiaba vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 25% chance of winning, Ceara a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cuiaba and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Ceara?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Ceara 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Ceara in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (1.14x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
25%
3.94
35%
2.86
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.81
1.03
Ceara xG
3.94
25%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.03 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cuiaba come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 17D 11L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Ceara sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (11W 17D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.32 for Ceara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cuiaba's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Ceara have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (1W 10D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Ceara in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Ceara in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Ceara away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; Ceara away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ceara in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
3
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Ceara have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Ceara 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Ceara 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cuiaba) and 37% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ceara in 32%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Ceara in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 53% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 37% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Ceara tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ceara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Ceara finished level at 0-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.77 xG and Ceara 1.03 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ceara landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against Ceara attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 25% | Draw 35% | Ceara 40%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Ceara 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Ceara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.