Cuiaba 0-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Atletico Paranaense at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atletico Paranaense's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.20 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cuiaba's 30% rate and Atletico Paranaense's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cuiaba, 1 for Atletico Paranaense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Atletico Paranaense 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 34% | Atletico Paranaense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.26 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.814 / defence 1.045 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.843 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 0.920. Data: 45 Cuiaba games / 45 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 47% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 24%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Paranaense 4.17. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Atletico Paranaense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 47% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Cuiaba 1.26 / Atletico Paranaense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.814 / def 1.045 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.843 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.314 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Atletico Paranaense xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 47% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.81x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.42
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.81 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 10W 17D 11L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 17L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.24 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2024, when Atletico Paranaense won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
1
Draws
5
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Atletico Paranaense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cuiaba) and 42% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 42% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Paranaense defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.26 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 47% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 24%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Paranaense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Atletico Paranaense 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.