Cruzeiro 2-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cruzeiro face Mirassol.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cruzeiro welcome Mirassol to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 21:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cruzeiro have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cruzeiro at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.56 xG and Mirassol 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.955 / defence 0.980 | Mirassol attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.055. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 38 games and Mirassol's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 53% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.88 | Draw 3.87 | Mirassol 4.75. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Cruzeiro 38 games, Mirassol 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, matchday 1 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 53% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cruzeiro 1.56 / Mirassol 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.955 / def 0.980 | Mirassol attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Mirassol xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Mirassol FAQs
What time does Cruzeiro vs Mirassol kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Cruzeiro 2 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Mirassol part of?
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol is a Serie A fixture (matchday 1) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 53% chance of winning, Mirassol a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cruzeiro and Mirassol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cruzeiro vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cruzeiro's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cruzeiro's last 38 games and Mirassol's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.87
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.44
0.88
Mirassol xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
22.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.88 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Cruzeiro (Home) vs Mirassol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Cruzeiro vs Mirassol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Mirassol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cruzeiro have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Mirassol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Mirassol?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Mirassol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Mirassol 2-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.56 xG and Mirassol 0.88 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Mirassol attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 53% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.