Criciuma 1-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 41%, yet in-form Sao Paulo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Criciuma vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Heriberto Hülse plays host to Criciuma versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Criciuma (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Criciuma's home record at Estádio Heriberto Hülse: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Criciuma are significantly better at Estádio Heriberto Hülse than their overall form suggests.
Sao Paulo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sao Paulo's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sao Paulo are 0.60 PPG clear of Criciuma in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Criciuma lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Sao Paulo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 70% and Sao Paulo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 57% | Sao Paulo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.17 xG and Sao Paulo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.840 / defence 1.074 | Sao Paulo attack 0.877 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.003. Data: 30 Criciuma games / 68 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 41% | Draw 30% | Sao Paulo 29%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Sao Paulo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Criciuma are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sao Paulo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Criciuma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Criciuma 50% | Sao Paulo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 41% | Draw 30% | Sao Paulo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Criciuma 1.17 / Sao Paulo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.840 / def 1.074 | Sao Paulo attack 0.877 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sao Paulo xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Criciuma vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?
Criciuma 1 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Criciuma vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Sao Paulo part of?
Criciuma vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 41% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Criciuma and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Sao Paulo?
Record (1 meetings): Criciuma 0W | Draws 0 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Criciuma and Sao Paulo in?
Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Sao Paulo (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Criciuma's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.88x) against Criciuma's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.37
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.12
0.94
Sao Paulo xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.94 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Criciuma come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Sao Paulo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Criciuma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Criciuma's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Criciuma are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.37 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 15W 5D 10L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Sao Paulo away?
Criciuma's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.50 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Criciuma or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Criciuma have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
1
Draws
1
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Sao Paulo?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Sao Paulo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Criciuma 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Criciuma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Criciuma 64%, Sao Paulo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Criciuma) and 57% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Sao Paulo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Criciuma's games and 50% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Criciuma's recent games and 57% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Criciuma and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 31, as Criciuma and Sao Paulo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.17 xG and Sao Paulo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Sao Paulo attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 41% | Draw 30% | Sao Paulo 29%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 57%, Sao Paulo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sao Paulo arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.