Coritiba 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees RB Bragantino travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Coritiba) versus 0.80 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coritiba, 1 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2022, ended 2–4 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 41% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 45% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.28 xG and RB Bragantino 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.854 / defence 0.966 | RB Bragantino attack 1.001 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.930. Data: 29 Coritiba games / 68 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 45% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 26%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | RB Bragantino 3.85. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 30% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 45% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Coritiba 1.28 / RB Bragantino 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.854 / def 0.966 | RB Bragantino attack 1.001 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.90
RB Bragantino xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Coritiba vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Coritiba 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino part of?
Coritiba vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 45% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Coritiba and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Coritiba and RB Bragantino in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.85x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.50
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.18
0.90
RB Bragantino xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Coritiba and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.90 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 4D 16L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.07 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coritiba's home form reads 8W 2D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.31 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 9W 4D 16L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 9W 10D 10L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or RB Bragantino away?
Coritiba's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.86 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
4
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
From 6 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 36%, RB Bragantino 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Coritiba) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Coritiba's recent matches and 57% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Coritiba's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.28 xG and RB Bragantino 0.90 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against RB Bragantino attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 45% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 26%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 45%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.07 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.