Coritiba 0-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees RB Bragantino travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. RB Bragantino's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Coritiba's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coritiba, 1 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 53% versus RB Bragantino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 51% | RB Bragantino 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.08 xG and RB Bragantino 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.911 / defence 1.003 | RB Bragantino attack 1.219 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.017. RB Bragantino have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Coritiba games / 55 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 31% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 39%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 50% | RB Bragantino 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 31% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Coritiba 1.08 / RB Bragantino 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.911 / def 1.003 | RB Bragantino attack 1.219 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.24
RB Bragantino xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Coritiba vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Coritiba 0 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino part of?
Coritiba vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 31% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coritiba and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Coritiba and RB Bragantino in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.91x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.29
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.33
1.24
RB Bragantino xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.24 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 11D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.31 PPG from 55 outings (18W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.02 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coritiba's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (5W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.35 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 15W 11D 29L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 18W 18D 19L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or RB Bragantino away?
Coritiba's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.70 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
4
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
From 6 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 44%, RB Bragantino 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Coritiba) and 56% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coritiba's recent matches and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Coritiba's recent games and 56% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.08 xG and RB Bragantino 1.24 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against RB Bragantino attack 1.22 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 31% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 39%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 51%, RB Bragantino 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.02 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.