Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Coritiba welcome Botafogo to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Thursday 30 November 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Coritiba — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Coritiba at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coritiba at 1.20 PPG versus Botafogo's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 1, Botafogo 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 1–4 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Coritiba trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Botafogo trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 55% versus Botafogo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 56% | Botafogo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.89 xG and Botafogo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.792 / defence 1.196 | Botafogo attack 0.999 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.152. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Coritiba games / 73 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 24% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 48%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Botafogo 2.08. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 30% | Botafogo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Nov 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 24% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Coritiba 0.89 / Botafogo 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.792 / def 1.196 | Botafogo attack 0.999 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Botafogo xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Botafogo kick off?
Coritiba vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 30 November 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Coritiba vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Botafogo part of?
Coritiba vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 24% chance of winning, Botafogo a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Coritiba and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
Record (3 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Botafogo in?
Coritiba (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Botafogo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.79) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
24%
4.13
28%
3.63
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.27
1.38
Botafogo xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
6%
16.36
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.3 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.38 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Coritiba have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 20W 11D 42L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 33W 16D 24L from 73 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (15W 7D 14L). That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 16W 9D 11L from 36 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.33 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 20W 11D 42L in their last 73 games (0.97 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 33W 16D 24L in their last 73 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.44 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Botafogo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Botafogo runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 42%, Botafogo 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Coritiba) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Botafogo in 31%; Coritiba have failed to score in 28% of games; Botafogo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Coritiba's recent matches and 42% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Coritiba's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Botafogo tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba and Botafogo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Botafogo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.89 xG and Botafogo 1.38 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Botafogo attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 24% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 48%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 56%, Botafogo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.